Piyasree Dasgupta : Has Kejriwal planted seeds of doubt in Modi’s Gujarat? 46% People agree with Kejriwal that development in Gujarat has been only for corporates
One would expect that an opinion poll in Gujarat - roughly a month before the actual elections in the country and after a year-long Narendra Modi blitzkrieg - would be predictable at its best. BJP and Modi steamrolling opponents is the answer any poll can throw up and the Lokniti-CSDS-CNN-IBN Election Tracker poll is no exception. BJP's vote share in Gujarat has been pegged at 55 percent in March and 46 percent of the state's respondents want Narendra Modi as their Prime Minister.
However, there is a small blip in this cosy picture: Arvind Kejriwal. The good news for Modi supporters is that only 5 percent of the respondents in Gujarat want Kejriwal as their Prime Minister. But the troubling news for Modi, and the fate of his much celebrated development agenda, is that there is a sizable amount of criticism against his Gujarat model in Gujarat. Many Gujaratis think it has not benefited everybody. According to the poll tracker survey, 40 percent of the respondents believed that Gujarat has witnessed great leaps in development. However, 15 percent said that there has been development but not as much as the Modi government has been claiming.
Twenty-three percent said that only a handful benefited from the government's development measures and 12 percent trashed the state's claims saying there has been no significant development. As opposed to the 40 percent who appreciate the development in Gujarat, 50 percent (an summation of the other criteria) are a bit or more critical of Modi's 'development' claims. Add to that another 10 percent who have no opinion on the same - if the development has been indeed as evident and life-altering as the government claims, there is little reason for not acknowledging it. In fact, the rest of the tracker data show a classic class divide - between those who may have benefited from the model and those who may not have.
In Modi's column, there is solid backing from the upper castes, Patels and OBCs - each with over 70 percent backing for Modi. Dalits and Muslims appear in the Congress column - representing the havenots with over 70 percent preference for the Congress. Adivasis tilt to the Congress with 35 percent against 22 percent for Modi. Modi's support is also solid in urban areas (71 percent), and 48 percent in rural areas (Congress 24 and 34 percent respectively). Once again, this shows where development may have reached or not reached. Bolstering these findings is another set of findings. Asked if, as Arvind Kejriwal has alleged, that development has remained restricted to the powerful corporate houses in Gujarat, 46 percent of the respondents seemed to agree. While 29 percent withheld an answer, only 25 percent of those who took the survey said that Kejriwal's claim was not true. The findings are unlikely to have any bearing on the local results in Gujarat, as is evident from the other poll results. But on a national scale, the criticism of Modi's model of development raises a few questions.
Gujarat is rightly considered as Modi's fiefdom. Despite the 2002 carnage, BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate has won three straight terms in the state, pointing at the fact that his voters tend to display strong allegiance for him, despite shortcomings. However, the fact that in Gujarat itself, nearly 50 percent of the 900 respondents surveyed seemed critical of their government's lofty declarations might point at the extent to which the Gujarat development model might be received by voters elsewhere. And there might be fair chances that not all are willing to buy the so-called 'Gujarat model' of development. There are more than a few reasons why the BJP should be slightly worried.
Firstly, not many have been apprised of what exactly the Gujarat model of development stands for. While Modi keeps harping on 'development', neither in his political rallies, nor in his speeches at colleges, investor meets, etc, does the Gujarat CM exactly describe what he means by development that he has achieved in Gujarat. The only thing, he unfailingly and repeatedly harps on, is his government's feat of supplying power to all villages in Gujarat. Now, to an average rural, or even urban voter, electricity to all corners of the country is a development idea that is sensible, but extremely Utopian in the context of the state of resources in the country and conflicted political landscape. Also, that's a promise that appears first in the bible of poll promises in India, hence, is something that has been exploited to no end. Voters outside Gujarat and those who have not taken active academic and political interest in Modi's politics, will find it difficult to take the promise at face value. Mostly, because they have heard it relentlessly since the beginning of polls in India.
So, what effectively is the development Modi is promising to India? Not many, including those looking out for him, have much of an idea. And BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate has precious little to dispel the doubts or answer these questions. If in his backyard there are doubts springing, it is but natural that the rest of India, who have only heard about Ahmedabad's wide roads and Gujarat's electrified villages apart from the 2002 communal carnage, will also want to question his claims. There is little doubt about the fact that Modi has risen on the back of the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Congress and hence, in comparison, the BJP would like to think he has a admirable economic agenda. It's another thing that not many are aware of what it is and can only look at Gujarat and hope it applies to India.
On the other hand, Arvind Kejriwal's mighty drama has definitely made some impact in Gujarat. And if it has managed to dent Gujarat's confidence against its own government, one can only imagine him having a good chance at deflating BJP's poll balloon outside Gujarat. The reason why Kejriwal's claims might have hit home is because he chose not to cast aspersions on the development model from afar, sending out a feeling of familiar, preconceived political bias. In fact, he stood in the heart of Gujarat and declared that the development was a hogwash and benefited only a handful of corporate houses. The sheer audacity of the act, and the Gujarat government's mistake of intercepting him, however briefly, was enough to send out a message that his accusations might not all be unfounded. In a fight between the two, Modi will be well-advised to not dismiss Kejriwal anymore. The Gujarat CM clearly has to clear the doubts his own voters have about his model. This time though, it may not matter, since the sentiment about sending a fellow Gujarati to Delhi as PM will overwhelm all doubts.
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/gujarat-in-modis-backyard-doubts-about-his-development-claims-1462477.html
However, there is a small blip in this cosy picture: Arvind Kejriwal. The good news for Modi supporters is that only 5 percent of the respondents in Gujarat want Kejriwal as their Prime Minister. But the troubling news for Modi, and the fate of his much celebrated development agenda, is that there is a sizable amount of criticism against his Gujarat model in Gujarat. Many Gujaratis think it has not benefited everybody. According to the poll tracker survey, 40 percent of the respondents believed that Gujarat has witnessed great leaps in development. However, 15 percent said that there has been development but not as much as the Modi government has been claiming.
Twenty-three percent said that only a handful benefited from the government's development measures and 12 percent trashed the state's claims saying there has been no significant development. As opposed to the 40 percent who appreciate the development in Gujarat, 50 percent (an summation of the other criteria) are a bit or more critical of Modi's 'development' claims. Add to that another 10 percent who have no opinion on the same - if the development has been indeed as evident and life-altering as the government claims, there is little reason for not acknowledging it. In fact, the rest of the tracker data show a classic class divide - between those who may have benefited from the model and those who may not have.
In Modi's column, there is solid backing from the upper castes, Patels and OBCs - each with over 70 percent backing for Modi. Dalits and Muslims appear in the Congress column - representing the havenots with over 70 percent preference for the Congress. Adivasis tilt to the Congress with 35 percent against 22 percent for Modi. Modi's support is also solid in urban areas (71 percent), and 48 percent in rural areas (Congress 24 and 34 percent respectively). Once again, this shows where development may have reached or not reached. Bolstering these findings is another set of findings. Asked if, as Arvind Kejriwal has alleged, that development has remained restricted to the powerful corporate houses in Gujarat, 46 percent of the respondents seemed to agree. While 29 percent withheld an answer, only 25 percent of those who took the survey said that Kejriwal's claim was not true. The findings are unlikely to have any bearing on the local results in Gujarat, as is evident from the other poll results. But on a national scale, the criticism of Modi's model of development raises a few questions.
Gujarat is rightly considered as Modi's fiefdom. Despite the 2002 carnage, BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate has won three straight terms in the state, pointing at the fact that his voters tend to display strong allegiance for him, despite shortcomings. However, the fact that in Gujarat itself, nearly 50 percent of the 900 respondents surveyed seemed critical of their government's lofty declarations might point at the extent to which the Gujarat development model might be received by voters elsewhere. And there might be fair chances that not all are willing to buy the so-called 'Gujarat model' of development. There are more than a few reasons why the BJP should be slightly worried.
Firstly, not many have been apprised of what exactly the Gujarat model of development stands for. While Modi keeps harping on 'development', neither in his political rallies, nor in his speeches at colleges, investor meets, etc, does the Gujarat CM exactly describe what he means by development that he has achieved in Gujarat. The only thing, he unfailingly and repeatedly harps on, is his government's feat of supplying power to all villages in Gujarat. Now, to an average rural, or even urban voter, electricity to all corners of the country is a development idea that is sensible, but extremely Utopian in the context of the state of resources in the country and conflicted political landscape. Also, that's a promise that appears first in the bible of poll promises in India, hence, is something that has been exploited to no end. Voters outside Gujarat and those who have not taken active academic and political interest in Modi's politics, will find it difficult to take the promise at face value. Mostly, because they have heard it relentlessly since the beginning of polls in India.
So, what effectively is the development Modi is promising to India? Not many, including those looking out for him, have much of an idea. And BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate has precious little to dispel the doubts or answer these questions. If in his backyard there are doubts springing, it is but natural that the rest of India, who have only heard about Ahmedabad's wide roads and Gujarat's electrified villages apart from the 2002 communal carnage, will also want to question his claims. There is little doubt about the fact that Modi has risen on the back of the strong anti-incumbency wave against the Congress and hence, in comparison, the BJP would like to think he has a admirable economic agenda. It's another thing that not many are aware of what it is and can only look at Gujarat and hope it applies to India.
On the other hand, Arvind Kejriwal's mighty drama has definitely made some impact in Gujarat. And if it has managed to dent Gujarat's confidence against its own government, one can only imagine him having a good chance at deflating BJP's poll balloon outside Gujarat. The reason why Kejriwal's claims might have hit home is because he chose not to cast aspersions on the development model from afar, sending out a feeling of familiar, preconceived political bias. In fact, he stood in the heart of Gujarat and declared that the development was a hogwash and benefited only a handful of corporate houses. The sheer audacity of the act, and the Gujarat government's mistake of intercepting him, however briefly, was enough to send out a message that his accusations might not all be unfounded. In a fight between the two, Modi will be well-advised to not dismiss Kejriwal anymore. The Gujarat CM clearly has to clear the doubts his own voters have about his model. This time though, it may not matter, since the sentiment about sending a fellow Gujarati to Delhi as PM will overwhelm all doubts.
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/gujarat-in-modis-backyard-doubts-about-his-development-claims-1462477.html
